The decline of neutrality in world politics has been proclaimed several times over the past century, most recently with Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. Pascal Lottaz, co-editor of a new book assessing global developments in neutralism in the “Post-Cold War” period, writes that neutrality policies are still a staple of international politics and that a new international consensus on what neutrality means could help deescalate the current crisis in Europe.
In some western circles, there has been a question mark over Turkey’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine, writes Ambassador Tacan Ildem. Here he outlines the long history of Turkish-Russian relations, and how Turkey’s policy on Ukraine today is a balancing act informed by the geopolitics of the region.
Members of the ELN Network respond to ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson’s recent commentary, reflecting on what choices countries can make that will affect what a 21st-century-style cold war will be like.
Our networks are at the heart of our policy impact. Reaching right across Europe they bring together established figures with emerging leaders who are all committed to better security for Europe.
As the CTBT’s 25th anniversary year comes to a close, CTBTO Executive Secretary Dr Robert Floyd and a diverse set of leaders from the Treaty’s most recent ratifying states send a powerful message on the CTBT’s relevance and resilience in today’s world.
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) Co-Conveners: Ukraine and reducing nuclear risks
The Co-Conveners of the EASLG warn that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine elevates nuclear risks dramatically. The first and most essential step toward reducing the risks of a consequential accident, mistake, or miscalculation is a ceasefire to end the unacceptable and unjustifiable loss of human lives.
Statement by the Chair and Executive Director of the European Leadership Network on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have devastating consequences for the security of all of us in Europe and beyond. The ELN’s Chair Lord Des Browne and Director Sir Adam Thomson call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of serious diplomacy.
If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
Thanks to the INF Treaty, Russian forces attacking Ukraine have not been able to use ground-to-ground ballistic and cruise missiles of ranges from 500-5,500 km, which could have devastated centres in Western Ukraine. Dan Plesch writes that the process that produced the INF Treaty provides important guidance for a renaissance in disarmament in the present century and calls on civil society to seek a global zero on missiles.
At a time when war rages at NATO’s doorstep, and collective defence coupled with rising defence spending is at the centre of everyone’s attention, ELN Policy Fellow Katarina Kertysova writes that managing to get 30 capitals to agree to an ambitious programme on climate security deserves applause.
Policy briefs & reports
ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El looks at the problems inherent both in the Dayton Agreement and its implementation – and offers recommendations for how they could be avoided in a future post-war agreement in Ukraine.
Dr Ian Anthony examines confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) in Central and Eastern Europe and notes steps made by countries such as Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine to create and enhance bilateral discussion formats. This policy brief analyses these measures and examines their applicability to the current conflict in Ukraine and the European security order that will follow the war.
Nuclear decision-making, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
This report looks at how the complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could impact nuclear decision-making, particularly in an escalating regional conventional conflict. In some scenarios, EDTs could exacerbate nuclear escalation, while in other circumstances they could encourage nuclear restraint.