NATO now needs to ensure that the INF Treaty’s collapse will neither exacerbate NATO-Russia confrontation, nor lead to a destabilizing arms build-up in Europe.
ELN on the INF Treaty
The United States withdrew from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty on 02 August 2019. From the first accusations of Russian violation of the treaty in 2014, the ELN has followed the debate and provided analysis both for and against this landmark decision.
As most of the treaties that formed the core of the arms control system are either gone or being undermined, Russia and the United States no longer want to lead by example by carrying the bilateral burden of disarmament.
There are currently no formal international agreements linking nuclear weapons and cyber capabilities, and to fill this void states have invested considerable resource to address the ‘cyber’ challenge – but what does this mean for the security of nuclear weapons?
Our networks are at the heart of our policy impact. Reaching right across Europe they bring together established figures with emerging leaders who are all committed to better security for Europe.
The US has committed to give security guarantees to the DPRK, but does the precedent of the Budapest Memorandum mean that these will be legally binding? Italy’s former Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, Carlo Trezza, explores the use of security assurances vis-à-vis guarantees.
The collapse of the deal threatens the future of nuclear diplomacy and the credibility of European foreign and security policy. Creative solutions to counteract US sanctions must be found as the 60 day deadline approaches.
A significant increase in the likelihood of nuclear war could motivate nuclear disarmament and risk reduction efforts. A Global Commission on Military Nuclear Risks is needed to authoritatively assess the trend line in risks and identify high-value mitigation options.
Policy briefs & reports
As a no-deal Brexit becomes increasingly likely, the chronicle of EUFOR Althea exposes the operational, strategic and political challenges facing EU defence today.
The security of space is a globally shared security concern. States must take collective action to find much needed international solutions to balance priorities, ensure equitable access, and protect national security and the outer space environment.
New analysis by Bourse & Bazaar and the European Leadership Network evaluates INSTEX’s design and operationalization.