On the second anniversary of Putin’s war in Ukraine, Olamide Samuel writes that the invasion has upset the fragile balance of obligations in the NPT’s bargain by dramatically increasing the perceived salience of nuclear weapons and reigniting motivations for proliferation. In response, nuclear weapon states choosing to reinforce their extended deterrence commitments inadvertently devalues the wider framework of security assurances granted to non-nuclear weapon states and the perceived value of the NPT’s grand bargain.
In our latest commentary produced from our New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Rebecca Donaldson explores the potential of new technologies for security whilst minimising their potential for harm in the realms of AI and the life sciences. She proposes that more funds go towards the biological weapons convention, the creation of an Emerging Technology Utilisation and Response Unit (ETURU) and the fostering of a culture of AI assurance and responsible democratisation of biotechnologies.
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG): Shrinking the Zone of Confrontation and Competition: Principles for Euro-Atlantic Security and the Global Nuclear Order
Former and serving senior officials, military leaders, and experts from across the Euro-Atlantic region put forward seven principles for Euro-Atlantic Security and the Global Nuclear Order.
Our networks are at the heart of our policy impact. Reaching right across Europe they bring together established figures with emerging leaders who are all committed to better security for Europe.
Over 250 influential figures from 50 countries, including China, Russia, and the US, warn that nuclear arms control cannot fall victim to geopolitical competition
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG): Advancing Global Nuclear “Fail-Safe”
Former and serving senior officials, military leaders, and experts from across the Euro-Atlantic region call on all nuclear arms states to reduce the risk of nuclear blunder, and to cooperate to eliminate nuclear risks and threats.
As the CTBT’s 25th anniversary year comes to a close, CTBTO Executive Secretary Dr Robert Floyd and a diverse set of leaders from the Treaty’s most recent ratifying states send a powerful message on the CTBT’s relevance and resilience in today’s world.
The NPT needs a common understanding of “nuclear threats”: Questions and tasks for the 11th NPT Review Cycle
YGLN members Maren Vieluf and Ananya Agustin Malhotra argue that NPT states need to start talking about whether or not “defensive” and “offensive” nuclear threats can be distinguished. If NPT states can find agreement on this matter, it could bridge the gap between states condemning any and all nuclear threats under any circumstances and those states that stand firmly behind “defensive” nuclear threats and allow for further progress to be made in the 11th NPT Review Cycle.
The defining challenge of the arms control interregnum is to ensure the NPT survives Russian brinkmanship and Chinese ambivalence, writes Maximilian Hoell. He argues that supporters of the NPT must face a simple choice: join forces to uphold the treaty to the extent possible and prevent its erosion or risk the treaty’s collapse. He argues that Western leadership is essential for safeguarding the NPT in the new security environment.
In the absence of globally acknowledged governance frameworks for AI in the military domain, two new initiatives came into existence in 2023 – the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM) and the US-initiated Political Declaration. Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco analyse both, writing that REAIM provides a much-needed space for a democratic, depoliticised, and decentralised approach to global military AI governance.
Policy briefs & reports
This report comes off the back of a two-day scenario-building workshop convened in October by the European Leadership Network and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Istanbul. A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe gathered to explore the implications of several different outcomes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe. Read the full report to view the scenarios, participants’ comments, and policy recommendations for European leaders.
North and South Korea are locked in a competitive cycle marked by efforts to balance each other’s increasing military capabilities. Jina Kim explores arms control and crisis stability on the Korean Peninsula and its impact on North Korea’s strategic calculations. The paper offers policy recommendations for South Korean policymakers to address these challenges.
Balancing deterrence with assurances: Policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific
This ELN and APLN policy brief explores the challenges facing Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UK in their security strategies towards China and North Korea. The paper argues that these security partners must balance deterrence strategies with providing assurances to adversaries.