Turkey’s resistance to Swedish and Finnish NATO membership is an outward sign of a more profound shift in Turkey’s geo-strategic position, writes Nick Williams. Fast becoming a “semi-detached ally”, NATO members are hoping that Turkey will return to a more moderate stance after the country’s May elections. If not, the consequences could be calamitous.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a new impetus for the European Union to further its territorial and institutional integration. Nicholas Lokker writes that creativity and compromise will be essential to capitalising on this opportunity to increase the EU’s geopolitical influence.
Today the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists have announced the Doomsday Clock 2023 and how close we are to midnight. We asked some of our network members what can be done to turn back the clock and avert a man-made global catastrophe.
Our networks are at the heart of our policy impact. Reaching right across Europe they bring together established figures with emerging leaders who are all committed to better security for Europe.
As the CTBT’s 25th anniversary year comes to a close, CTBTO Executive Secretary Dr Robert Floyd and a diverse set of leaders from the Treaty’s most recent ratifying states send a powerful message on the CTBT’s relevance and resilience in today’s world.
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) Co-Conveners: Ukraine and reducing nuclear risks
The Co-Conveners of the EASLG warn that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine elevates nuclear risks dramatically. The first and most essential step toward reducing the risks of a consequential accident, mistake, or miscalculation is a ceasefire to end the unacceptable and unjustifiable loss of human lives.
Statement by the Chair and Executive Director of the European Leadership Network on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have devastating consequences for the security of all of us in Europe and beyond. The ELN’s Chair Lord Des Browne and Director Sir Adam Thomson call for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of serious diplomacy.
In contrast to the disappointing outcomes of the non-proliferation and disarmament pillars of the 2022 Review Conference, a significant reinvigoration took place in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy pillar. Olamide Samuel writes that Pillar III offered progressive solutions by identifying how the treaty plays a role in mitigating some of the most pressing human and environmental security issues of our time and could help inform mechanisms for cooperation and success in future RevCons.
In the past, concerns about a nuclear attack were mainly in regard to the leaders of rogue states acquiring nuclear weapons. The war in Ukraine has shifted this threat to the leader of a superpower waging a war with thousands of known nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. Tarja Cronberg explores the ways in which control over nuclear weapons can be taken out of the hands of world leaders, and how to mitigate the risk of a nuclear war triggered by the human error of powerful individuals.
Policy briefs & reports
In October, the ELN and Hanns Seidel Foundation partnered on a track 1.5 meeting in London which brought together a range of European and Iranian participants both to assess how the JCPOA could still be revived and to consider alternative scenarios in more detail. The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, captures the key highlights from the meeting.
Emerging and disruptive technologies, nuclear risk, and strategic stability: Chinese literature review
With emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) increasingly becoming a new field of military competition among great powers, serious questions have been raised about whether they will fundamentally change the ways modern warfare will be conducted, in particular implications for nuclear deterrence. Fei Su and Dr Jingdong Yuan analyse Chinese academic and professional publications to explore new ways forward for mitigating the risks posed by EDTs.
Dr Alexander Graef and Tim Thies look at what kind of arms control might be feasible in the context of evolving multipolar strategic rivalry by drawing on lessons from the past. They argue that the US and NATO allies should pursue limited yet necessary arms control measures that enhance their security.