Sadly, NATO-Russia relations have reached another low point. Only a few weeks ago the two sides had their most recent diplomatic encounter. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met on the margins of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York in late September. While little is known about their short discussion, one can safely assume it was probably another icy exchange, focussing on areas of divergence rather than convergence between the Alliance and Russia.

After NATO had asked eight Russian diplomats to leave Belgium, saying they were undeclared intelligence officers, the Kremlin has now responded in kind: Foreign Minister Lavrov, in his typical coolness, announced the closure of Russia’s Mission to NATO and the withdrawal of diplomatic credentials from emissaries working in NATO’s military liaison and information office in Moscow. The Alliance, Lavrov argued, “didn’t show any interest in equal dialogue or joint work.” Hence there was no need to “go on pretending that in the foreseeable future anything will change.”

The timing of Moscow’s announcement is not a coincidence. While NATO has just kicked off its annual deterrence exercise “Steadfast Noon”, aimed at practising the defence of European allies, Russia seeks to display its political weight and military might elsewhere in the world. Together with China, it just completed a large-scale naval drill in the Far East. “Joint Sea 2021” also included a joint passage of Russian and Chinese vessels through the Tsugaru Strait between Japan’s Honshu and Hokkaido islands, a novelty raising concerns in the region and Washington. Earlier this week, Russia completed a week-long military exercise with the Serbian air defence forces “Slavic Shield 2021”. And while NATO is trying hard to turn the page on the deplorable Afghan chapter, thousands of Russian troops are conducting a military exercise alongside Tajik and other forces from Central Asia on the Afghan border these days. And, as if it wasn’t enough, on 11 October, Algerian and Russian military forces concluded a joint exercise in Russia’s southwestern city of Ossetia that included simulations on “storming cities where militants are holed up, organising ambushes, observation points and camouflage.” There is little doubt: Russia is busy elsewhere.

Why is all this relevant for the current exchange between NATO and Russia? Because Russia today feels strong, both as a regional and global player. True: from a military perspective, the Kremlin still eyes NATO’s posture at its western borders as a threat to Russia’s national security.  But Moscow’s recently held ZAPAD-21 exercise was a valuable way to exercise its troops’ deployability and mobility along the borders to NATO territory. Yet politically speaking, Moscow considers NATO as weak and divided. Lavrov’s message, therefore, could be translated as: ‘Listen, we don’t need you (NATO). We’d rather do business bilaterally with allies where Russian interests can be met. And we show military strength where it matters from a geostrategic perspective.’

The net result of the latest deterioration in the NATO-Russian relationship is both dangerous and deplorable at the same time. Dangerous because there is now hardly any line of communication between the two parties left. With the number of military activities in all domains and exercises on all sides increasing, the risk of miscalculation or accidental military encounters has substantially grown. And deplorable because there doesn’t seem to be any political way forward. While NATO’s criticism of Russia’s multiple malign activities and behaviour is correct, the Allies’ prevailing formula of deterrence and dialogue has cemented nothing but a status quo with Russia.  A Kremlin suggesting that it does not regard NATO as a serious political actor may feel even more inclined to forgo its way in the future.