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Commentary

South Korea’s dangerous sense of isolation

Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.

17 April 2024 | Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White
Asia-PacificGlobal SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionChinaDefenceDeterrenceDPRKForeign policyNorth KoreaNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionUnited KingdomWMDsAPLN
Commentary

The potential terrorist use of large language models for chemical and biological terrorism

In our latest New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) commentary, Nicolò Miotto explores the potential existential risks stemming from the terrorist use of large language models (LLMs) and AI to manufacture chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. In the commentary he explores how LLMs and AI have enabled terrorist groups to enhance their capabilities so far, and what governments, the private sector, and NGOs need to do to mitigate future risks.

5 April 2024 | Nicolò Miotto
Global SecurityBiosecurityCSBMsDefenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceNEVERNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionSecurityTerrorismWMDsNEVER
Commentary

Why the Ukraine and Gaza wars mean Russia could now support a nuclear-armed Iran

Meir Javedanfar writes that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war mean that a nuclear Iran may no longer be viewed as a threat by the Russian leadership. Javedanfar argues that a nuclear Iran could boost Russia’s leverage in the Middle East and divert attention from its war in Europe.

3 April 2024 | Meir Javedanfar
Global SecurityIranJCPOAMiddle EastNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussia
Commentary

Navigating cyber vulnerabilities in AI-enabled military systems

As countries continue incorporating AI into conventional military systems, they should prepare themselves for the risk that adversaries are likely already working to exploit weaknesses in AI models by threatening datasets at the core of AI. To address this, Alice Saltini writes that states should develop metrics to assess how cyber vulnerabilities could impact AI integration.

19 March 2024 | Alice Saltini
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionELN
Commentary

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to threaten the nuclear order’s grand bargain

On the second anniversary of Putin’s war in Ukraine, Olamide Samuel writes that the invasion has upset the fragile balance of obligations in the NPT’s bargain by dramatically increasing the perceived salience of nuclear weapons and reigniting motivations for proliferation. In response, nuclear weapon states choosing to reinforce their extended deterrence commitments inadvertently devalues the wider framework of security assurances granted to non-nuclear weapon states and the perceived value of the NPT’s grand bargain.

27 February 2024 | Olamide Samuel
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferationNPTNPTProjectNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaUkraine