Network reflections: What to watch in 2023
Three members of the ELN’s Network discuss how the Russia-West-Ukraine challenge might develop in 2023 and what other issues we should all be alert to in the coming 12 months.
ELN publications feature authoritative research, high-quality analysis, diverse viewpoints and practical recommendations to address current foreign, defence, and security policy challenges.
Three members of the ELN’s Network discuss how the Russia-West-Ukraine challenge might develop in 2023 and what other issues we should all be alert to in the coming 12 months.
In the past, concerns about a nuclear attack were mainly in regard to the leaders of rogue states acquiring nuclear weapons. The war in Ukraine has shifted this threat to the leader of a superpower waging a war with thousands of known nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. Tarja Cronberg explores the ways in which control over nuclear weapons can be taken out of the hands of world leaders, and how to mitigate the risk of a nuclear war triggered by the human error of powerful individuals.
Three members of the ELN’s Network reflect on the 2022 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).
In October, the ELN and Hanns Seidel Foundation partnered on a track 1.5 meeting in London which brought together a range of European and Iranian participants both to assess how the JCPOA could still be revived and to consider alternative scenarios in more detail. The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, captures the key highlights from the meeting.
The importance of new technologies for conflict and security has grown in the past decade, but the images we use to represent them have remained the same. In this illustrated long-form commentary, ELN commissioning editor Esther Kersley interviews cyber security experts to explore what current cyber images are conveying and what impact this could be having on our ability to understand these issues and imagine the effects they may have on our future.
With emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) increasingly becoming a new field of military competition among great powers, serious questions have been raised about whether they will fundamentally change the ways modern warfare will be conducted, in particular implications for nuclear deterrence. Fei Su and Dr Jingdong Yuan analyse Chinese academic and professional publications to explore new ways forward for mitigating the risks posed by EDTs.
Dr Alexander Graef and Tim Thies look at what kind of arms control might be feasible in the context of evolving multipolar strategic rivalry by drawing on lessons from the past. They argue that the US and NATO allies should pursue limited yet necessary arms control measures that enhance their security.
The decline of neutrality in world politics has been proclaimed several times over the past century, most recently with Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. Pascal Lottaz, co-editor of a new book assessing global developments in neutralism in the “Post-Cold War” period, writes that neutrality policies are still a staple of international politics and that a new international consensus on what neutrality means could help deescalate the current crisis in Europe.
In some western circles, there has been a question mark over Turkey’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine, writes Ambassador Tacan Ildem. Here he outlines the long history of Turkish-Russian relations, and how Turkey’s policy on Ukraine today is a balancing act informed by the geopolitics of the region.