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ELN publications feature authoritative research, high-quality analysis, diverse viewpoints and practical recommendations to address current foreign, defence, and security policy challenges.

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1073 items
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Commentary

Why and how the NPT must prepare for an arms control interregnum in the post-New START era

The defining challenge of the arms control interregnum is to ensure the NPT survives Russian brinkmanship and Chinese ambivalence, writes Maximilian Hoell. He argues that supporters of the NPT must face a simple choice: join forces to uphold the treaty to the extent possible and prevent its erosion or risk the treaty’s collapse. He argues that Western leadership is essential for safeguarding the NPT in the new security environment.

8 February 2024 | Maximilian Hoell
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlChinaDeterrenceNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUnited StatesWMDs
Policy brief

Strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula: Dual crisis and risk reduction measures

North and South Korea are locked in a competitive cycle marked by efforts to balance each other’s increasing military capabilities. Jina Kim explores arms control and crisis stability on the Korean Peninsula and its impact on North Korea’s strategic calculations. The paper offers policy recommendations for South Korean policymakers to address these challenges.

7 February 2024 | Dr Jina Kim
Global SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionNorth KoreaNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurity
Commentary

What does global military AI governance need?

In the absence of globally acknowledged governance frameworks for AI in the military domain, two new initiatives came into existence in 2023 – the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM) and the US-initiated Political Declaration. Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco analyse both, writing that REAIM provides a much-needed space for a democratic, depoliticised, and decentralised approach to global military AI governance.

2 February 2024 | Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco
Global SecurityArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareRisk ReductionUnited States
Policy brief

Balancing deterrence with assurances: Policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific

This ELN and APLN policy brief explores the challenges facing Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UK in their security strategies towards China and North Korea. The paper argues that these security partners must balance deterrence strategies with providing assurances to adversaries.

31 January 2024 | Joel Petersson Ivre, Oliver Meier, Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White and Rishi Paul
Global SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionChinaDPRKNorth KoreaNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurityUnited Kingdom
Commentary

Rethink territory: How Ukraine can redefine victory

As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, Karsten Friis writes that Ukraine must define a strategic end on its own terms. It should be one that Russia cannot prevent and that Ukraine and its Western partners can achieve together. This definition of victory should be decoupled from territorial demarcation lines and defined in broader, non-territorial terms.

29 January 2024 | Dr Karsten Friis
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEuropeRussiaUkraine
Policy brief

Operationalising strategic risk reduction in the Asia-Pacific region: An Australian perspective

Australia’s deterrence-heavy defence strategy may heighten the risks of inadvertent escalation in the Asia-Pacific rather than mitigate them, writes Brendan Taylor. This joint ELN APLN policy brief makes a number of recommendations to Australian policymakers to avoid failling into a deterrence trap.

24 January 2024 | Brendan Taylor
Global SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionChinaDefenceDeterrenceRisk ReductionSecurity
Commentary

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER Podcast – Nuclear War: What is it good for?

Listen to the second episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore nuclear war, the first man-made existential risk. Featuring an introduction to the topic, disarmament versus deterrence, how governments have dealt with issues such as proliferation, and how they should respond to them in future.

23 January 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Rishi Paul, Oliver Meier, Olamide Samuel, Valeriia Hesse and Sahil Shah
Global SecurityDeterrenceEmerging technologiesNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear WeaponsPodcastsRisk ReductionWMDs
Commentary

3D printing and WMD terrorism: a threat in the making?

In our latest commentary from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Nicolò Miotto examines developments in 3D printing technology and how these advances in its efficacy and accessibility, as well as its relationship to other emerging and disruptive technologies, have changed the threat landscape in regard to terrorists potentially obtaining WMDs, as well as what governments and the private sector need to do to tackle these emerging threats.

10 January 2024 | Nicolò Miotto
Global SecurityBiosecurityEmerging technologiesNEVERNuclear WeaponsSecurityTerrorismWMDs
Commentary

Nuclear disarmament verification and the NPT: De-politicising the political

In our latest commentary from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Kim Westerich-Fellner explores how focusing on technical issues such as nuclear arms verification, can be used as a means of sidestepping the political disputes between States Parties that have more often than not inhibited progress and cooperation within the structures of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

9 January 2024 | Kim Westerich-Fellner
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceNEVERNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDs