Alexandra Filippenko explores the reasons why Russian civil society institutions failed to prevent the war in Ukraine and suggests a number of measures that Western democracies may take together with Russian opposition leaders to end the war and establish a lasting peace.
Even if Israel’s controversial new government survives, new challenges – Iran’s improving relations with Russia, the China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and waning legitimacy at home and abroad – confront its military option against Iran, writes Meir Javedanfar.
In September 2022 Russia was expelled from the European Convention on Human Rights due to its invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the remaining member states of the Council of Europe have placed a greater importance on stabilising and safeguarding the European Court of Human Rights system, which currently struggles to implement its judgments and ensure compliance. Nikita Gryazin and Julia Glukhikh explore how to best improve the efficacy of the court in the face of these issues.
This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.
Next week, representatives of the 193 State Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) will gather for their Fifth Review Conference (RC-5). Alexander Ghionis writes that State Parties should pursue agreements on individual issues likely to command consensus rather than seeking to adopt a watered-down consensus final document.
Former Turkish ambassadors to NATO, Ahmet Üzümcü and Mehmet Fatih Ceylan, write that there is untapped potential for closer cooperation between Turkey and the United Kingdom in the defence and security fields.
Important questions remain about future Arctic regional cooperation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Next month, Norway will take over the chairmanship of the Arctic Council from Russia and diplomatic efforts are already underway to ensure the transfer goes as smoothly as possible. Gabriella Gricius explores three possible scenarios of what this Arctic Council could look like.
What do emerging and disruptive technologies like AI mean for the role of humans in war? How might AI-augmented human-machine interaction affect the role of human command in war? And what might an AI commander look like? James Johnson explores these topics and assesses whether or not we are moving towards a situation where AI-enabled autonomous weapons start making strategic decisions, as opposed to humans, during conflict.
The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.