Hamidreza Azizi examines reactions in Iran to the Wagner groups rebellion. He writes that the wide range of responses to the mutiny, from government statements and state media to independent analysts, illustrates a broader trend of polarisation in Iranian foreign policy that has been increasingly visible in recent years in a multitude of areas, from nuclear negotiations to geopolitical alliances.
As the security situation in Kosovo deteriorates significantly, the ELN’s Senior Associate Fellow Nick Williams writes that although this latest violence is local in origin, it has deeper roots and much wider implications.
The Russia-Ukraine war has brought an abrupt end to a certain nuclear complacency that has characterised European politics since the Cold War, writes Andrew Futter. The immediate challenge facing governments across the Euro-Atlantic space appears to be maintaining a credible nuclear and conventional deterrence capability and pursuing risk reduction and confidence-building measures.
The ELN’s Director, Sir Adam Thomson, spoke at this year’s Effective Altruism conference on the nature of the catastrophic and existential risks we face, including nuclear risks. He discusses how they are meaningfully different from those of 60 years ago, and how we should reassess how we tackle the single greatest driver of them, great power competition.
Alexandra Filippenko explores the reasons why Russian civil society institutions failed to prevent the war in Ukraine and suggests a number of measures that Western democracies may take together with Russian opposition leaders to end the war and establish a lasting peace.
Even if Israel’s controversial new government survives, new challenges – Iran’s improving relations with Russia, the China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and waning legitimacy at home and abroad – confront its military option against Iran, writes Meir Javedanfar.
In September 2022 Russia was expelled from the European Convention on Human Rights due to its invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the remaining member states of the Council of Europe have placed a greater importance on stabilising and safeguarding the European Court of Human Rights system, which currently struggles to implement its judgments and ensure compliance. Nikita Gryazin and Julia Glukhikh explore how to best improve the efficacy of the court in the face of these issues.
This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.
Next week, representatives of the 193 State Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) will gather for their Fifth Review Conference (RC-5). Alexander Ghionis writes that State Parties should pursue agreements on individual issues likely to command consensus rather than seeking to adopt a watered-down consensus final document.