If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
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The first Meeting of States Parties of the TPNW (1MSP) is taking place this week, and the NPT Review Conference (RevCon) in August. Marion Messmer argues that these international conferences can be a success if all states engage constructively.