The current Russia-NATO deterrence relationship is unstable, and dangerously so. The authors argue that the interplay between the deterrence postures operated by both Russia and NATO has not been sufficiently appreciated during their development – deterrence cannot be effective if your target does not understand your actions.
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With Russia-West tension high, ELN Research Fellow Thomas Frear evaluates the progress made on mitigating the risk posed by hazardous military incidents and the implementation of ELN recommendations.
Thomas Frear highlights the poorly understood escalatory potential of modern cyber operations; arguing that the continued integration of the cyber domain with the conventional and nuclear domains has substantially increased the possibility of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
ELN Research Fellow Thomas Frear argues that a resumption of Open Skies Treaty flights between Russia and Georgia is in the best interest of both, outlining a status-neutral method to overcome previously irreconcilable national positions.
As Russia – West military encounters intensify, the ELN reiterates its call for the regulations that govern such encounters to be updated and expanded to avoid escalation.
The ELN examines the strengths and weaknesses of NATO deterrence posture, and how alliance policy can be improved and more effectively communicated. Doing so, the authors argue, of crucial importance to Euro-Atlantic security.