Neither Russian peacekeepers nor EU mediation have prevented Azerbaijan from violently retaking Nagorno-Karabakh. The ELN’s Policy & Impact Director Jane Kinninmont analyses the geopolitical realignments underlying the offensive which has caused tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee, and suggests means to avoid further conflict in the South Caucasus.
This report details the findings of a roundtable organised by the ELN’s Balkans parliamentary project, that discussed regional security challenges and cooperation in Southeast Europe. Held in Belgrade in May 2023, it constituted the first event held in the region by the project.
This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.
A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
This month, Chancellor Shultz wrote, “Germans are intent on becoming the guarantor of European security that our allies expect us to be, a bridge builder within the European Union and an advocate for multilateral solutions to global problems”. But to do so requires a “new strategic culture” in Germany’s security strategy – What shifts should we expect in the new Security Strategy and where do the main challenges lie?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a new impetus for the European Union to further its territorial and institutional integration. Nicholas Lokker writes that creativity and compromise will be essential to capitalising on this opportunity to increase the EU’s geopolitical influence.