A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
On 29 September, the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss Belarus with speakers from Minsk providing their assessment of the country’s positioning in Russia’s war with Ukraine and in the broader confrontation between Russia and the West.
The ELN’s Younger Generation Leaders Network on Euro-Atlantic Security (YGLN) has intensified its convening since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has held weekly meetings, every one of which has been attended by Ukrainians, Russians, other Europeans and Americans alike. Through these meetings, all parties involved have engaged in fruitful and frank dialogue and have retained their commitment to engagement even in the toughest of times. Below, we discuss some key takeaways from our first three months of meetings.
Dr Ian Anthony examines confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) in Central and Eastern Europe and notes steps made by countries such as Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine to create and enhance bilateral discussion formats. This policy brief analyses these measures and examines their applicability to the current conflict in Ukraine and the European security order that will follow the war.
ELN members reflect on the recent tensions at the Belarus/Poland border and discuss principles for the next steps forward.
As pro-democracy movements proliferate throughout the post-Soviet space, Europe and the US have had noticeably muted reactions. But should Joe Biden become America’s next president this week, he will likely take a more actively pro-democracy position in the region. The EU should start planning for this now.