After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, governments in the former Soviet Union were immediately forced to deal with difficult geopolitical realities. In this report for the ELN, YGLN member Daniel Shapiro uses quantitative and qualitative analysis to show there is increased heterogeneity in geopolitical positioning among post-Soviet states and offers key lessons from this for Western policymakers.
The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.
A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
On 29 September, the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss Belarus with speakers from Minsk providing their assessment of the country’s positioning in Russia’s war with Ukraine and in the broader confrontation between Russia and the West.
The ELN’s Younger Generation Leaders Network on Euro-Atlantic Security (YGLN) has intensified its convening since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has held weekly meetings, every one of which has been attended by Ukrainians, Russians, other Europeans and Americans alike. Through these meetings, all parties involved have engaged in fruitful and frank dialogue and have retained their commitment to engagement even in the toughest of times. Below, we discuss some key takeaways from our first three months of meetings.
Dr Ian Anthony examines confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) in Central and Eastern Europe and notes steps made by countries such as Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine to create and enhance bilateral discussion formats. This policy brief analyses these measures and examines their applicability to the current conflict in Ukraine and the European security order that will follow the war.