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Commentary

Can the EU solve Nagorno-Karabakh’s emergency?

This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.

10 May 2023 | Jane Kinninmont
Commentary

Be careful what you wish for: Russia wants to share nuclear weapons with Belarus

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.

6 April 2023 | Katia Glod and Oliver Meier
Commentary

The war in Ukraine one year on: will Belarus join the battlefield?

A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.

28 February 2023 | Katia Glod
Commentary

Network reflections: What should we expect from the new German security strategy?

This month, Chancellor Shultz wrote, “Germans are intent on becoming the guarantor of European security that our allies expect us to be, a bridge builder within the European Union and an advocate for multilateral solutions to global problems”. But to do so requires a “new strategic culture” in Germany’s security strategy – What shifts should we expect in the new Security Strategy and where do the main challenges lie?

Policy brief

Can Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs) help manage European crises?

Dr Ian Anthony examines confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) in Central and Eastern Europe and notes steps made by countries such as Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine to create and enhance bilateral discussion formats. This policy brief analyses these measures and examines their applicability to the current conflict in Ukraine and the European security order that will follow the war.

10 May 2022 | Ian Anthony