Hamidreza Azizi examines reactions in Iran to the Wagner groups rebellion. He writes that the wide range of responses to the mutiny, from government statements and state media to independent analysts, illustrates a broader trend of polarisation in Iranian foreign policy that has been increasingly visible in recent years in a multitude of areas, from nuclear negotiations to geopolitical alliances.
Even if Israel’s controversial new government survives, new challenges – Iran’s improving relations with Russia, the China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and waning legitimacy at home and abroad – confront its military option against Iran, writes Meir Javedanfar.
This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.
In October, the ELN and Hanns Seidel Foundation partnered on a track 1.5 meeting in London which brought together a range of European and Iranian participants both to assess how the JCPOA could still be revived and to consider alternative scenarios in more detail. The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, captures the key highlights from the meeting.
46 statespersons warn that strategic implications for global non-proliferation would be grave should the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement
The AUKUS deal has generated a broad debate over its possible non-proliferation implications, with much discourse focusing on Iran. Ludovica Castelli writes that we should not measure the impact of AUKUS simply by whether other would-be proliferators exploit the precedent it has set but by the bigger questions it raises about the credibility of the non-proliferation regime.