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Commentary

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to threaten the nuclear order’s grand bargain

On the second anniversary of Putin’s war in Ukraine, Olamide Samuel writes that the invasion has upset the fragile balance of obligations in the NPT’s bargain by dramatically increasing the perceived salience of nuclear weapons and reigniting motivations for proliferation. In response, nuclear weapon states choosing to reinforce their extended deterrence commitments inadvertently devalues the wider framework of security assurances granted to non-nuclear weapon states and the perceived value of the NPT’s grand bargain.

27 February 2024 | Olamide Samuel
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferationNPTNPTProjectNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaUkraine
Commentary

The NPT needs a common understanding of “nuclear threats”: Questions and tasks for the 11th NPT Review Cycle

YGLN members Maren Vieluf and Ananya Agustin Malhotra argue that NPT states need to start talking about whether or not “defensive” and “offensive” nuclear threats can be distinguished. If NPT states can find agreement on this matter, it could bridge the gap between states condemning any and all nuclear threats under any circumstances and those states that stand firmly behind “defensive” nuclear threats and allow for further progress to be made in the 11th NPT Review Cycle.

15 February 2024 | Maren Vieluf and Ananya Agustin Malhotra
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferationArms ControlCTBTMissilesNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsYGLN
Commentary

Why and how the NPT must prepare for an arms control interregnum in the post-New START era

The defining challenge of the arms control interregnum is to ensure the NPT survives Russian brinkmanship and Chinese ambivalence, writes Maximilian Hoell. He argues that supporters of the NPT must face a simple choice: join forces to uphold the treaty to the extent possible and prevent its erosion or risk the treaty’s collapse. He argues that Western leadership is essential for safeguarding the NPT in the new security environment.

8 February 2024 | Maximilian Hoell
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlChinaDeterrenceNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUnited StatesWMDsYGLN
Commentary

Nuclear disarmament verification and the NPT: De-politicising the political

In our latest commentary from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Kim Westerich-Fellner explores how focusing on technical issues such as nuclear arms verification, can be used as a means of sidestepping the political disputes between States Parties that have more often than not inhibited progress and cooperation within the structures of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

9 January 2024 | Kim Westerich-Fellner
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceNEVERNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsNEVER
Policy brief

Pragmatic Steps to reinforce the NPT on the way towards the 2026 Review Conference

This policy brief outlines key issues as identified by ELN network members that will be at the centre of the 11th Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) review cycle and offers actionable recommendations and pathways to diplomatic success. It also charts some of the different scenarios that NPT states parties will have to consider as they prepare for the 2026 NPT Review Conference.

11 December 2023
Global SecurityArms ControlNPTNPTProjectNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSecurity
Policy brief

Weathering the storm: A scenario-based approach to strengthening the NPT

At a moment where the risk of use of nuclear weapons remains dangerously elevated, the PrepComs leading up to the next NPT Review Conference present an opportunity for states parties to begin establishing and advancing an agenda to reduce nuclear risks. Using a scenario-based approach, this policy brief takes stock of current geopolitical dynamics and their implications for the long-term health of the NPT and its review process.

11 December 2023
Global SecurityArms ControlNPTNPTProjectNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons