In our latest commentary from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Shane Ward and Eva Siegmann, explore how the emergence of non-nuclear strategic threats (NNST) has undermined the normative taboo surrounding the use of nuclear weapons, and why new methods extending beyond deterrence are needed to ensure international stability.
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Mark Hibbs writes that while the conflict between Hamas and Israel has complicated the situation, the rationale behind the US push for Israeli-Saudi normalisation and continued US-Saudi nuclear negotiations remain strong. The Hamas attack is a reminder of the potential for disruption that a nuclear-armed Iran could have on the region.
In May, the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network convened for the first time for a discussion of existential risk, how policymakers should react to it, and why diverse voices matter in the existential risk space.
Could establishing Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) systems for nuclear security in the EU improve existential risk resilience?
Nicholas Moulios, from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) Network, has written the ELN’s first commentary as part of this project. He explores the capabilities of OSINT systems for assessing and mitigating potential nuclear disasters, and how these emerging technologies can be harnessed to improve existential risk resilience in Europe and beyond.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed critical flaws in the international nuclear realm. Valeriia Hesse writes that to prevent the total erosion of the non-proliferation norm, a realistic and pragmatic approach towards gradual nuclear arms reductions must be pursued. Ahead of the NPT PrepCom, she outlines concrete steps that the international community can take to build a stronger and more resilient nuclear order.
To avoid nuclear instability, a moratorium on integrating AI into nuclear decision-making is urgently needed: The NPT PrepCom can serve as a springboard
The integration of neural networks into NC3 poses a multitude of risks to global security. Alice Saltini writes that to pave the way for a moratorium, NPT State Parties should use the PrepCom to focus discussions on understanding the risks associated with integrating deep learning models into nuclear decision-making.