Three members of the ELN’s Network reflect on the 2022 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).
In October, the ELN and Hanns Seidel Foundation partnered on a track 1.5 meeting in London which brought together a range of European and Iranian participants both to assess how the JCPOA could still be revived and to consider alternative scenarios in more detail. The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, captures the key highlights from the meeting.
With emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) increasingly becoming a new field of military competition among great powers, serious questions have been raised about whether they will fundamentally change the ways modern warfare will be conducted, in particular implications for nuclear deterrence. Fei Su and Dr Jingdong Yuan analyse Chinese academic and professional publications to explore new ways forward for mitigating the risks posed by EDTs.
If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
The 10th NPT Review Conference ended last week without an agreement on a consensus outcome document. At a RevCon side event to launch a new ELN project, network member Adam Kobieracki remarked that “diplomatic success should not be measured by the number and volume of documents agreed and adopted” but instead should focus on concrete steps that need to be taken to reinforce and implement the NPT system.
As the 10th NPT RevCon continues, the Head of the Philippine Delegation to the RevCon, Carlos D. Sorreta, warns that NATO’s plans to increase defence spending ignore Russia’s diminished military capabilities. As Russia cannot keep up with the West’s conventional arms build-up, it will rely more heavily on its nuclear force which will lead to a new arms race and increased tensions.