This policy brief outlines key issues as identified by ELN network members that will be at the centre of the 11th Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) review cycle and offers actionable recommendations and pathways to diplomatic success. It also charts some of the different scenarios that NPT states parties will have to consider as they prepare for the 2026 NPT Review Conference.
At a moment where the risk of use of nuclear weapons remains dangerously elevated, the PrepComs leading up to the next NPT Review Conference present an opportunity for states parties to begin establishing and advancing an agenda to reduce nuclear risks. Using a scenario-based approach, this policy brief takes stock of current geopolitical dynamics and their implications for the long-term health of the NPT and its review process.
In recent years the US and the UK have said they might deter threats arising from emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) with nuclear weapons. This policy shift signals an increased emphasis on nuclear deterrence and challenges the UK’s non-proliferation and disarmament commitments. Instead of aiming to deter the extreme use of EDTs with nuclear weapons, this policy brief argues that the UK and other nuclear weapons states should focus on developing their national resilience to mitigate threats.
To prevent a further erosion of the effectiveness and efficiency of the current review cycle of the NPT, there is an urgent need for action. Michael Biontino looks at what pragmatic proposals could be taken up from the 2023 PrepCom Chair’s recommendations and the working paper from the Chair of the working group on further strengthening the review process of the NPT.
To better understand emerging technologies, NEVER members Konrad, Anemone, Emil, Arthur, and Joel outline the evolution of the risk landscape around emerging disruptive technologies and draw parallels between the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and those posed by novel biotechnologies. They explore the broader challenge of governing emerging technologies and suggest potential ways forward.
Listen to the first episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore the basics of man-made existential risk, featuring an introduction to the topic, its relationship to great power competition, how governments have dealt with potential existential risks such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, and how they should respond to them in future.