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Commentary

The one-person monopoly of nuclear launches

In the past, concerns about a nuclear attack were mainly in regard to the leaders of rogue states acquiring nuclear weapons. The war in Ukraine has shifted this threat to the leader of a superpower waging a war with thousands of known nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. Tarja Cronberg explores the ways in which control over nuclear weapons can be taken out of the hands of world leaders, and how to mitigate the risk of a nuclear war triggered by the human error of powerful individuals.

11 January 2023 | Tarja Cronberg
Commentary

The 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis: What lessons does the crisis teach for today?

If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.

28 October 2022 | Marion Messmer
Commentary

The US-Russia military hotline in Europe: Key principles for risk reduction from the US-Russia deconfliction measures in Syria

Despite diplomatic channels between Russia and Western countries narrowing in the aftermath of the invasion, in early March the US and Russia announced that they would establish a hotline to avoid miscalculation or escalation. Juliette Faure outlines key lessons from the US-Russia deconfliction measures in Syria starting in 2015.

17 March 2022 | Juliette Faure