This report explores how hybrid threats manifest in the Arctic, areas that are susceptible to influence, potential targets, actors who wish to shape public opinions, as well as the objectives being pursued. Kertysova and Gricius examine the threat and vulnerability landscape in the Arctic and assesses four key trends that have been observed.
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Pros and cons: Options for security guarantees for Ukraine and their impact on Euro-Atlantic security
Tetiana Melnyk explores the viability of several security guarantees for Ukraine. A lasting resolution to the conflict would require a more systematic integration of Ukraine, and potentially other Eastern European states, into as many Western structures and organisations as possible, she writes.
Institutionalised and forward-looking security and defence cooperation during the war and interim period are critical security guarantees for Ukraine. Kateryna Anisova writes that the G7-EU-coalition-of-willing nexus can assure a comprehensive and mutually reinforcing approach for bolstering Ukraine’s capabilities and integrating it into the Euro-Atlantic security system before the war ends.
Current security guarantees for Ukraine range from unavailable to ineffective, writes Sascha Ostanina. She proposes a middle-ground solution to provide collective security for Ukraine through a binding self-defence agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Such an agreement would provide Ukraine with access to weapons and ammunition in the event of Russian aggression.
To avoid making post-war Ukraine’s public sentiments grow anti-Western or isolationist, Denys Karlovskyi writes that NATO must build a mutually beneficial framework of security cooperation with Ukraine’s government and maintain the current level of Ukrainian public support for NATO and the EU. One way of achieving this is for NATO member states to engage with the Ukrainian public in a way that is on par with the government.
Russian thinking on AI integration and interaction with nuclear command and control, force structure, and decision-making
Oleg Shakirov analyses Russian-language literature on the Russian debate on AI and the nuclear field and offers recommendations for P5 states to advance dialogue on AI integration into nuclear C2, force structure and decision-making.