Current security guarantees for Ukraine range from unavailable to ineffective, writes Sascha Ostanina. She proposes a middle-ground solution to provide collective security for Ukraine through a binding self-defence agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Such an agreement would provide Ukraine with access to weapons and ammunition in the event of Russian aggression.
To avoid making post-war Ukraine’s public sentiments grow anti-Western or isolationist, Denys Karlovskyi writes that NATO must build a mutually beneficial framework of security cooperation with Ukraine’s government and maintain the current level of Ukrainian public support for NATO and the EU. One way of achieving this is for NATO member states to engage with the Ukrainian public in a way that is on par with the government.
Oleg Shakirov analyses Russian-language literature on the Russian debate on AI and the nuclear field and offers recommendations for P5 states to advance dialogue on AI integration into nuclear C2, force structure and decision-making.
Neither Russian peacekeepers nor EU mediation have prevented Azerbaijan from violently retaking Nagorno-Karabakh. The ELN’s Policy & Impact Director Jane Kinninmont analyses the geopolitical realignments underlying the offensive which has caused tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee, and suggests means to avoid further conflict in the South Caucasus.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed critical flaws in the international nuclear realm. Valeriia Hesse writes that to prevent the total erosion of the non-proliferation norm, a realistic and pragmatic approach towards gradual nuclear arms reductions must be pursued. Ahead of the NPT PrepCom, she outlines concrete steps that the international community can take to build a stronger and more resilient nuclear order.
Ahead of the 2023 NPT Preparatory Committee, this policy brief examines how nuclear threats have changed with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how to define a ‘nuclear threat’, and how NPT member states should react to nuclear threats. It sets out recommendations for how State Parties can strengthen the NPT and the nuclear taboo in the current Review Cycle.