A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
Three members of the ELN’s Network discuss how the Russia-West-Ukraine challenge might develop in 2023 and what other issues we should all be alert to in the coming 12 months.
On 27 October 2022. the European Leadership Network (ELN) convened the Contact Group on Russia-West relations via Zoom to discuss Turkey’s positioning on the war in Ukraine and resulting foreign policy relations.
In some western circles, there has been a question mark over Turkey’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine, writes Ambassador Tacan Ildem. Here he outlines the long history of Turkish-Russian relations, and how Turkey’s policy on Ukraine today is a balancing act informed by the geopolitics of the region.
Although it may now be hard to escape a cold war, especially between Russia and the West, countries can still make real choices that affect the course of the confrontation, writes ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson. Here he suggests four axes along which all states involved should be considering their positioning as they pursue their clashing desired outcomes.
On 29 September, the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss Belarus with speakers from Minsk providing their assessment of the country’s positioning in Russia’s war with Ukraine and in the broader confrontation between Russia and the West.