Members of the ELN Network respond to ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson’s recent commentary, reflecting on what choices countries can make that will affect what a 21st-century-style cold war will be like.
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If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
Although it may now be hard to escape a cold war, especially between Russia and the West, countries can still make real choices that affect the course of the confrontation, writes ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson. Here he suggests four axes along which all states involved should be considering their positioning as they pursue their clashing desired outcomes.
ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El looks at the problems inherent both in the Dayton Agreement and its implementation – and offers recommendations for how they could be avoided in a future post-war agreement in Ukraine.
On 29 September, the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss Belarus with speakers from Minsk providing their assessment of the country’s positioning in Russia’s war with Ukraine and in the broader confrontation between Russia and the West.
The significance of NATO’s June Summit is in the adoption of a tougher and more robust approach to security through a renewed emphasis on defence, deterrence and, whenever necessary, confrontation, write ELN Senior Associate Fellows Nicholas Williams and Simon Lunn.