The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.
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After President XI’s visit to Moscow, we asked our network members for their thoughts on what this means for the war in Ukraine and global politics more broadly. Is China ramping up its support for Russia or acting as a calming influence on a potential future junior partner? Read the piece to see our members’ contributions in full.
A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we share some of the analyses and activities recently undertaken by members of the European Leadership Network.
The decline of neutrality in world politics has been proclaimed several times over the past century, most recently with Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO. Pascal Lottaz, co-editor of a new book assessing global developments in neutralism in the “Post-Cold War” period, writes that neutrality policies are still a staple of international politics and that a new international consensus on what neutrality means could help deescalate the current crisis in Europe.