Alexandra Filippenko explores the reasons why Russian civil society institutions failed to prevent the war in Ukraine and suggests a number of measures that Western democracies may take together with Russian opposition leaders to end the war and establish a lasting peace.
If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
Thanks to the INF Treaty, Russian forces attacking Ukraine have not been able to use ground-to-ground ballistic and cruise missiles of ranges from 500-5,500 km, which could have devastated centres in Western Ukraine. Dan Plesch writes that the process that produced the INF Treaty provides important guidance for a renaissance in disarmament in the present century and calls on civil society to seek a global zero on missiles.
The danger inherent in the basic structure of the Russia-West crisis itself ought to be receiving more attention, argue Malcolm Rifkind and Ian Kearns. The ELN Board members write that the lack of asymmetry of interests with Russia will make it harder to navigate a safe outcome of the war.
The ELN’s Younger Generation Leaders Network on Euro-Atlantic Security (YGLN) has intensified its convening since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has held weekly meetings, every one of which has been attended by Ukrainians, Russians, other Europeans and Americans alike. Through these meetings, all parties involved have engaged in fruitful and frank dialogue and have retained their commitment to engagement even in the toughest of times. Below, we discuss some key takeaways from our first three months of meetings.
ELN Impact Director Jane Kinninmont reflects on the perspectives of people in the Middle East on the war in Ukraine, as seen at the The Doha Forum. She argues that the question of exactly what security commitments the US is willing to make outside of NATO is deeply relevant to the Gulf states’ own existential concerns.