
Unpacking Technological Complexity & Approaches to Nuclear Policy Formulation
In 2020, the European Leadership Network (ELN) in cooperation with partners set out on a journey to unpack technological complexity as it impacts nuclear decision-making and propose practical policy approaches to deal with related risks.
The challenge we want to address
Nuclear decision-making is complex. Disruptive technologies pose both risks and opportunities to nuclear decision-making which need to be better explained, understood, gamed, and mitigated. The project’s focus is on the – so far under-examined – implications of the technological complexity that emerges when nuclear decision-making is affected by a plethora of new technologies which are all evolving rapidly and simultaneously. Building on existing work that looks at the impact of individual technologies on nuclear policy, this project assesses the impact of these technologies in the aggregate, seeks to overcome related risks and explores opportunities offered by technologies to mitigate these risks.
Leveraging on the ELN’s deep expertise, convening power, and network of seasoned, high-level practitioners from multiple countries and utilizing ELN’s partner organizations strengths, we have embarked on a path to study, analyze, describe, train, and recommend decision-makers on nuclear policy challenges of technological complexities.
The project will develop, test-drive, propose and promote practical policy approaches that governments might pursue to begin to responsibly regulate and steer the weaponization of potentially disruptive technologies and their use in nuclear decision making.
The objectives of this multi-year project are to reduce risk in the nuclear decision-making, identify mitigation strategies, de-escalation solutions and manage potential and unintended escalation. We also strive to engage and raise the voice of younger generation experts in the discussion.
To commence work, the ELN in partnership with the German Federal Foreign Office has organized and hosted a “Rethinking Arms Control” workshop in March 2021. This closed-door meeting brought a diverse group of experts of scholars, practitioners, former nuclear weapons decision-makers, and emerging leaders to ideate and analyse the challenges, opportunities, and pitfalls of technological complexity. The summary of the proceedings and major takeaways from the workshop ARE highlighted in the following report: New Technologies, Complexity, Nuclear Decision Making and Arms Control: Workshop Report, June 2021
How we want to achieve the goal
The project is built upon four strands which – like four legs of a stool – support the main goal. These are:
- Baselining Exercise
- Big Data Analysis of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies
- Methodologies to Deal with Multi-tech Complexities
- Mitigation Strategies & Arms Control
We begin by asking what the science (strand 1), practioners (strand 2) and current policies and tools (strand 3) tell us about the impact of and ways of dealing with technological complexity in nuclear decision making. We then craft policy approaches that governments might pursue (strand 3 and 4).
This comprehensive approach allows us to unpack technological complexity by harnessing the brightest minds around the world, test policy approaches with people who “have been there and done it” and use our networks to develop and promote solutions with current decision-makers.
Funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the MacArthur Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Heinrich Böll Foundation and in-kind contributions from project partners make this work possible.
Nuclear and New Technology Publications

How can we help science to save the world?
To launch the ELN’s new project “NEVER”, which seeks to unite young people working on global catastrophic risk from across Europe, Lord Martin Rees writes on the need for an alliance between science and the public sphere and the role young individuals and activists can play in this.

The hooded man at the computer: What are cyber images telling us?
The importance of new technologies for conflict and security has grown in the past decade, but the images we use to represent them have remained the same. In this illustrated long-form commentary, ELN commissioning editor Esther Kersley interviews cyber security experts to explore what current cyber images are conveying and what impact this could be having on our ability to understand these issues and imagine the effects they may have on our future.

Emerging and disruptive technologies, nuclear risk, and strategic stability: Chinese literature review
With emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) increasingly becoming a new field of military competition among great powers, serious questions have been raised about whether they will fundamentally change the ways modern warfare will be conducted, in particular implications for nuclear deterrence. Fei Su and Dr Jingdong Yuan analyse Chinese academic and professional publications to explore new ways forward for mitigating the risks posed by EDTs.

Collective cyber defence and attack: NATO’s Article 5 after the Ukraine conflict
The cyber side of conflict has become a prominent topic in recent years, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the discussion of this topic all the more relevant. In this commentary, Michael Klipstein and Tinatin Japaridze argue that NATO should consider and create policy for collective cyber defence, and potentially offense, under Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

Nuclear decision-making, complexity and emerging and disruptive technologies: A comprehensive assessment
This report looks at how the complex interactions of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) could impact nuclear decision-making, particularly in an escalating regional conventional conflict. In some scenarios, EDTs could exacerbate nuclear escalation, while in other circumstances they could encourage nuclear restraint.

Emerging & disruptive technologies and nuclear weapons decision making: risks, challenges and mitigation strategies
Bringing together a new generation of experts, this report explores the changing landscape of the nuclear policy field and assesses risks, challenges, and mitigation strategies for nuclear weapon decision making under technological complexity.
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European Leadership Network (ELN)
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Federal Foreign Office
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The Arms Control Association (ACA)
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The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR)
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The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)
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The Oracle Partnership
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Professor Andrew Futter, University of Leicester
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The British American Security Information Council (BASIC)
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The Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung (HBS)
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The Younger Generation Leaders Network on Euro-Atlantic Security (YGLN)
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Dr Vladimir Kozin (Analytical Agency “Strategic Stability")
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