NATO now needs to ensure that the INF Treaty’s collapse will neither exacerbate NATO-Russia confrontation, nor lead to a destabilizing arms build-up in Europe.
As most of the treaties that formed the core of the arms control system are either gone or being undermined, Russia and the United States no longer want to lead by example by carrying the bilateral burden of disarmament.
The US has committed to give security guarantees to the DPRK, but does the precedent of the Budapest Memorandum mean that these will be legally binding? Italy’s former Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, Carlo Trezza, explores the use of security assurances vis-à-vis guarantees.
Dr Hans Blix, Director-General Emeritus of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and ELN member, argues that, in the case of the JCPOA, the US government did not “withdraw” from an agreement but violated a legally binding UN Security Council decision.
The collapse of the deal threatens the future of nuclear diplomacy and the credibility of European foreign and security policy. Creative solutions to counteract US sanctions must be found as the 60 day deadline approaches.
A significant increase in the likelihood of nuclear war could motivate nuclear disarmament and risk reduction efforts. A Global Commission on Military Nuclear Risks is needed to authoritatively assess the trend line in risks and identify high-value mitigation options.
Contrary to criticism surrounding an increased number of US forces and related infrastructure in Poland, the latest agreement will strengthen deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank in line with NATO policies.
At a time of change across the Atlantic and within Europe, especially with the ongoing Brexit negotiations, it is essential that Germany and the United Kingdom prevent divergences from growing.
Some US officials have recently alleged that Russia is undermining the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by conducting low-yield tests at the Novaya Zemlya test site. What should the international community make of these allegations?