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Report

Asia-Pacific flashpoints: Comparing Australian, Japanese, South Korean & UK perceptions

This ELN and APLN report compares Australian, Japanese, South Korean, and UK risk perceptions towards Taiwan and North Korea. It finds that diverging perceptions of risk in the Asia-Pacific are potential obstacles to policy coordination and offers recommendations for how to address this.

Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Commentary

South Korea’s dangerous sense of isolation

Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.

17 April 2024 | Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White
Policy brief

Balancing deterrence with assurances: Policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific

This ELN and APLN policy brief explores the challenges facing Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UK in their security strategies towards China and North Korea. The paper argues that these security partners must balance deterrence strategies with providing assurances to adversaries.

Policy brief

Resisting the risks of nuclear mission creep: UK deterrence and emerging strategic threats

In recent years the US and the UK have said they might deter threats arising from emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) with nuclear weapons. This policy shift signals an increased emphasis on nuclear deterrence and challenges the UK’s non-proliferation and disarmament commitments. Instead of aiming to deter the extreme use of EDTs with nuclear weapons, this policy brief argues that the UK and other nuclear weapons states should focus on developing their national resilience to mitigate threats.

8 December 2023 | Julia Berghofer