The defining challenge of the arms control interregnum is to ensure the NPT survives Russian brinkmanship and Chinese ambivalence, writes Maximilian Hoell. He argues that supporters of the NPT must face a simple choice: join forces to uphold the treaty to the extent possible and prevent its erosion or risk the treaty’s collapse. He argues that Western leadership is essential for safeguarding the NPT in the new security environment.
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Australia’s deterrence-heavy defence strategy may heighten the risks of inadvertent escalation in the Asia-Pacific rather than mitigate them, writes Brendan Taylor. This joint ELN APLN policy brief makes a number of recommendations to Australian policymakers to avoid failling into a deterrence trap.
Listen to the second episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore nuclear war, the first man-made existential risk. Featuring an introduction to the topic, disarmament versus deterrence, how governments have dealt with issues such as proliferation, and how they should respond to them in future.
In our latest commentary from the ELN’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, Kim Westerich-Fellner explores how focusing on technical issues such as nuclear arms verification, can be used as a means of sidestepping the political disputes between States Parties that have more often than not inhibited progress and cooperation within the structures of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In recent years the US and the UK have said they might deter threats arising from emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) with nuclear weapons. This policy shift signals an increased emphasis on nuclear deterrence and challenges the UK’s non-proliferation and disarmament commitments. Instead of aiming to deter the extreme use of EDTs with nuclear weapons, this policy brief argues that the UK and other nuclear weapons states should focus on developing their national resilience to mitigate threats.
Mark Hibbs writes that while the conflict between Hamas and Israel has complicated the situation, the rationale behind the US push for Israeli-Saudi normalisation and continued US-Saudi nuclear negotiations remain strong. The Hamas attack is a reminder of the potential for disruption that a nuclear-armed Iran could have on the region.