Nobumasa Akiyama discusses Japanese perspectives of strategic risks in East Asia, including the North Korean threat and navigating Japan’s relationship with China amid great power rivalry.
Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.
Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, speaks with Jodi Rudoren, Editor-in-Chief of the Forward and former New York Times Bureau Chief in Israel, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian of Cambridge University, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, and an expert on Iran and the Middle East. They discuss their own experiences of 7 October, their reactions to the war in Gaza, the implications for the media, geopolitics and the region, and the escalatory nature of the war following Iran’s increased role in the conflict over the past week.
Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.
In our latest New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) commentary, Nicolò Miotto explores the potential existential risks stemming from the terrorist use of large language models (LLMs) and AI to manufacture chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. In the commentary he explores how LLMs and AI have enabled terrorist groups to enhance their capabilities so far, and what governments, the private sector, and NGOs need to do to mitigate future risks.
Meir Javedanfar writes that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war mean that a nuclear Iran may no longer be viewed as a threat by the Russian leadership. Javedanfar argues that a nuclear Iran could boost Russia’s leverage in the Middle East and divert attention from its war in Europe.