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Commentary

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to threaten the nuclear order’s grand bargain

On the second anniversary of Putin’s war in Ukraine, Olamide Samuel writes that the invasion has upset the fragile balance of obligations in the NPT’s bargain by dramatically increasing the perceived salience of nuclear weapons and reigniting motivations for proliferation. In response, nuclear weapon states choosing to reinforce their extended deterrence commitments inadvertently devalues the wider framework of security assurances granted to non-nuclear weapon states and the perceived value of the NPT’s grand bargain.

27 February 2024 | Olamide Samuel
Report

Scenario building workshop report: “Europe after the war”

This report comes off the back of a two-day scenario-building workshop convened in October by the European Leadership Network and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Istanbul. A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe gathered to explore the implications of several different outcomes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe. Read the full report to view the scenarios, participants’ comments, and policy recommendations for European leaders.

14 February 2024
Commentary

Why and how the NPT must prepare for an arms control interregnum in the post-New START era

The defining challenge of the arms control interregnum is to ensure the NPT survives Russian brinkmanship and Chinese ambivalence, writes Maximilian Hoell. He argues that supporters of the NPT must face a simple choice: join forces to uphold the treaty to the extent possible and prevent its erosion or risk the treaty’s collapse. He argues that Western leadership is essential for safeguarding the NPT in the new security environment.

8 February 2024 | Maximilian Hoell
Commentary

Rethink territory: How Ukraine can redefine victory

As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, Karsten Friis writes that Ukraine must define a strategic end on its own terms. It should be one that Russia cannot prevent and that Ukraine and its Western partners can achieve together. This definition of victory should be decoupled from territorial demarcation lines and defined in broader, non-territorial terms.

29 January 2024 | Dr Karsten Friis
Report

Countering Russia’s hybrid threats in the Arctic

This report explores how hybrid threats manifest in the Arctic, areas that are susceptible to influence, potential targets, actors who wish to shape public opinions, as well as the objectives being pursued. Kertysova and Gricius examine the threat and vulnerability landscape in the Arctic and assesses four key trends that have been observed.

8 December 2023 | Katarina Kertysova and Gabriella Gricius
Commentary

Pros and cons: Options for security guarantees for Ukraine and their impact on Euro-Atlantic security

Tetiana Melnyk explores the viability of several security guarantees for Ukraine. A lasting resolution to the conflict would require a more systematic integration of Ukraine, and potentially other Eastern European states, into as many Western structures and organisations as possible, she writes.

7 December 2023 | Tetiana Melnyk