This report comes off the back of a two-day scenario-building workshop convened in October by the European Leadership Network and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Istanbul. A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe gathered to explore the implications of several different outcomes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe. Read the full report to view the scenarios, participants’ comments, and policy recommendations for European leaders.
As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, Karsten Friis writes that Ukraine must define a strategic end on its own terms. It should be one that Russia cannot prevent and that Ukraine and its Western partners can achieve together. This definition of victory should be decoupled from territorial demarcation lines and defined in broader, non-territorial terms.
Tetiana Melnyk explores the viability of several security guarantees for Ukraine. A lasting resolution to the conflict would require a more systematic integration of Ukraine, and potentially other Eastern European states, into as many Western structures and organisations as possible, she writes.
Institutionalised and forward-looking security and defence cooperation during the war and interim period are critical security guarantees for Ukraine. Kateryna Anisova writes that the G7-EU-coalition-of-willing nexus can assure a comprehensive and mutually reinforcing approach for bolstering Ukraine’s capabilities and integrating it into the Euro-Atlantic security system before the war ends.
Current security guarantees for Ukraine range from unavailable to ineffective, writes Sascha Ostanina. She proposes a middle-ground solution to provide collective security for Ukraine through a binding self-defence agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Such an agreement would provide Ukraine with access to weapons and ammunition in the event of Russian aggression.