With emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) increasingly becoming a new field of military competition among great powers, serious questions have been raised about whether they will fundamentally change the ways modern warfare will be conducted, in particular implications for nuclear deterrence. Fei Su and Dr Jingdong Yuan analyse Chinese academic and professional publications to explore new ways forward for mitigating the risks posed by EDTs.
Dr Alexander Graef and Tim Thies look at what kind of arms control might be feasible in the context of evolving multipolar strategic rivalry by drawing on lessons from the past. They argue that the US and NATO allies should pursue limited yet necessary arms control measures that enhance their security.
If there is one parallel between the Cuban Missile Crisis and the war in Ukraine, Marion Messmer writes, it’s that decision-making is influenced by myths, enemy images, and beliefs. The fog of war makes miscommunication, misperception, and miscalculation that much more likely, in turn increasing the risk that further escalation might take place. Whether the war in Ukraine will be able to provide a similar motivation for arms control efforts as the Cuban Missile Crisis did will depend on how exactly it will end.
Thanks to the INF Treaty, Russian forces attacking Ukraine have not been able to use ground-to-ground ballistic and cruise missiles of ranges from 500-5,500 km, which could have devastated centres in Western Ukraine. Dan Plesch writes that the process that produced the INF Treaty provides important guidance for a renaissance in disarmament in the present century and calls on civil society to seek a global zero on missiles.
The 10th NPT Review Conference ended last week without an agreement on a consensus outcome document. At a RevCon side event to launch a new ELN project, network member Adam Kobieracki remarked that “diplomatic success should not be measured by the number and volume of documents agreed and adopted” but instead should focus on concrete steps that need to be taken to reinforce and implement the NPT system.
On 16th August, the ELN launched a new project on the sidelines of the tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (RevCon). Funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it will invest in practical initiatives to pave the way for tomorrow’s arms control.