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Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEUEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

Is the bridge to peace in Ukraine too far? Principles for a future peace plan

Former ambassadors to NATO, Ahmet Üzümcü and Fatih Ceylan, look ahead at what a potential peace deal in Ukraine could look like. They write that neither mutual accusations nor wishful thinking can be taken as a guide to chart the future of broader European security. Instead, the focus should be on exploring peace by putting together potential elements of an enduring and sustainable deal that would ultimately serve the interests of global security.

9 April 2024 | Ahmet Üzümcü and Mehmet Fatih Ceylan
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEUNATORussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineELN
Commentary

No future? Cooperation with younger generation Russian experts

In an excerpt from her new book “The New Cold War”, ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that despite the challenges, the West needs to maintain certain channels of communication beyond the political and military level. Contact with a younger generation of Russian security experts, civil society activists, and political scientists is essential for a safer Europe.

27 March 2024 | Julia Berghofer
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraine
Commentary

Ukraine needs more than bangers and mash: Envisioning a strategic goal for NATO

On NATO’s 75th anniversary, and as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, Dr Leon Hartwell calls on NATO member states with larger economies to match the economic contributions to Ukraine of smaller NATO countries, as a percentage of GDP. He argues that if NATO properly utilised its economic advantage over Russia, Ukraine would then have the necessary capacity to win on the battlefield.

7 March 2024 | Dr Leon Hartwell
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsDefenceEastern EuropeEuropeNATORussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraine
Commentary

Rethink territory: How Ukraine can redefine victory

As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, Karsten Friis writes that Ukraine must define a strategic end on its own terms. It should be one that Russia cannot prevent and that Ukraine and its Western partners can achieve together. This definition of victory should be decoupled from territorial demarcation lines and defined in broader, non-territorial terms.

29 January 2024 | Dr Karsten Friis
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEuropeRussiaUkraine
Report

Countering Russia’s hybrid threats in the Arctic

This report explores how hybrid threats manifest in the Arctic, areas that are susceptible to influence, potential targets, actors who wish to shape public opinions, as well as the objectives being pursued. Kertysova and Gricius examine the threat and vulnerability landscape in the Arctic and assesses four key trends that have been observed.

8 December 2023 | Katarina Kertysova and Gabriella Gricius
Euro-Atlantic SecurityArcticHybrid warfareRussiaRussia-West Relations