Putin underestimated Western unity and the scope of Western reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, write Üzümcü, Ceylan and İldem. However, they note that had such an invasion occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency, the Western reaction may have been quite different.
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Lord Michael Ashcroft reports that a recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls in Russia shows that most Russians back the invasion of Ukraine and support certain Kremlin narratives — but they don’t claim all of it.
The US-Russia military hotline in Europe: Key principles for risk reduction from the US-Russia deconfliction measures in Syria
Despite diplomatic channels between Russia and Western countries narrowing in the aftermath of the invasion, in early March the US and Russia announced that they would establish a hotline to avoid miscalculation or escalation. Juliette Faure outlines key lessons from the US-Russia deconfliction measures in Syria starting in 2015.
Ukrainians want to stay and fight, but don’t see Russian people as the enemy. A remarkable poll from Kyiv
Lord Michael Ashcroft reports that a recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls in Ukraine shows that Ukrainians wish to stand and fight, and that while most see their future closer to Europe than to Russia, they do not consider the Russian people to be “the enemy.”
Statement by the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) Co-Conveners: Ukraine and reducing nuclear risks
The Co-Conveners of the EASLG warn that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine elevates nuclear risks dramatically. The first and most essential step toward reducing the risks of a consequential accident, mistake, or miscalculation is a ceasefire to end the unacceptable and unjustifiable loss of human lives.
Approach with caution: Lessons for Ukraine from the Russian approach to ceasefires and humanitarian access in Syria
The unfolding horror in Ukraine has brought calls for an immediate ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian corridors. These are vital, but Russia’s approach to these measures in Syria means that securing them in Ukraine will require caution and careful negotiation, writes Emma Beals.