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Putin underestimated Western unity and the scope of Western reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, write Üzümcü, Ceylan and İldem. However, they note that had such an invasion occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency, the Western reaction may have been quite different.
Lord Michael Ashcroft reports that a recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls in Russia shows that most Russians back the invasion of Ukraine and support certain Kremlin narratives — but they don’t claim all of it.
As the UK strongly supports Ukraine against attack, Boris Johnson’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week raised the question “what about Yemen?”. The two wars are very different, politically and legally, but the Yemen war has important lessons about how an invasion can also harm the invader, writes the ELN’s Impact Director Jane Kinninmont.
Despite diplomatic channels between Russia and Western countries narrowing in the aftermath of the invasion, in early March the US and Russia announced that they would establish a hotline to avoid miscalculation or escalation. Juliette Faure outlines key lessons from the US-Russia deconfliction measures in Syria starting in 2015.
As nuclear weapons make headlines once more, the images and narratives that pervade focus on fear and panic leading to paralysing doom and political stasis. For sustained engagement and real-world change, Elizabeth Talerman and Shazeeda Bhola from The Nucleus Group write that a fundamental shift is required in how the nuclear conversation is framed — invoking hope instead of fear and identifying solutions and shared ambitions.
Lord Michael Ashcroft reports that a recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls in Ukraine shows that Ukrainians wish to stand and fight, and that while most see their future closer to Europe than to Russia, they do not consider the Russian people to be “the enemy.”
The Co-Conveners of the EASLG warn that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine elevates nuclear risks dramatically. The first and most essential step toward reducing the risks of a consequential accident, mistake, or miscalculation is a ceasefire to end the unacceptable and unjustifiable loss of human lives.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increases nuclear risks and represents a major setback for multilateral nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament diplomacy. To mitigate the risk of nuclear escalation, the P5 must demonstrate to the international community that they stand behind their joint affirmation that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
On International Women’s Day 2022, the ELN is proud to showcase some of the brilliant women in our network. Watch Nathalie Tocci, Marietje Schaake, Nana Kalandarishvili and Julia Berghofer discuss leadership, diversity, and more.