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Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEUEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

Is the bridge to peace in Ukraine too far? Principles for a future peace plan

Former ambassadors to NATO, Ahmet Üzümcü and Fatih Ceylan, look ahead at what a potential peace deal in Ukraine could look like. They write that neither mutual accusations nor wishful thinking can be taken as a guide to chart the future of broader European security. Instead, the focus should be on exploring peace by putting together potential elements of an enduring and sustainable deal that would ultimately serve the interests of global security.

9 April 2024 | Ahmet Üzümcü and Mehmet Fatih Ceylan
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEUNATORussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineELN
Commentary

Navigating cyber vulnerabilities in AI-enabled military systems

As countries continue incorporating AI into conventional military systems, they should prepare themselves for the risk that adversaries are likely already working to exploit weaknesses in AI models by threatening datasets at the core of AI. To address this, Alice Saltini writes that states should develop metrics to assess how cyber vulnerabilities could impact AI integration.

19 March 2024 | Alice Saltini
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionELN
Person

Sabine Mengelberg

Sabine Mengelberg has an academic background in political science, with a specialisation in international relations. Currently, Mengelberg serves as an Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at the Netherlands Defence Academy. Mengelberg’s fascination for cooperation between...

ELN
Person

Nadezhda Neynsky

Nadezhda Neynsky is a distinguished diplomat and politician with a remarkable career. She served as Bulgaria's Ambassador to Turkey from 2015 to 2021 and, more recently, was a member of the 2022/23 Cohort of the Advance Leadership Initiative at Harvard. Mrs Neynsky served as Deputy Speaker of...

ELN
Commentary

Nagorno-Karabakh: Violence amid mediation

Neither Russian peacekeepers nor EU mediation have prevented Azerbaijan from violently retaking Nagorno-Karabakh. The ELN’s Policy & Impact Director Jane Kinninmont analyses the geopolitical realignments underlying the offensive which has caused tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee, and suggests means to avoid further conflict in the South Caucasus.

27 September 2023 | Jane Kinninmont
European DefenceArmeniaDiplomacyEUEuropeForeign policyRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityTurkeyUnited NationsUnited StatesELN