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Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEUEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

Be careful what you wish for: Russia wants to share nuclear weapons with Belarus

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.

6 April 2023 | Katia Glod and Oliver Meier
Euro-Atlantic SecurityBelarusDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeMissilesNATONPTProjectNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineWMDsELN
Commentary

The war in Ukraine one year on: will Belarus join the battlefield?

A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.

28 February 2023 | Katia Glod
European DefenceBelarusDefenceEastern EuropeEuropeRussiaUkraineELN
Commentary

East-West Coffee Shop: Belarus

In the first episode of the East-West Coffee Shop podcast, European Leadership Network (ELN) Policy Fellow Ben Challis sits down with Yauheni Preiherman and Katia Glod to discuss the developing situation in Belarus following the re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been described as the last dictator in Europe.

23 September 2020 | Ben Challis, Yauheni Preiherman and Katia Glod
YGLNBalticsBelarusEastern EuropeEastern PartnershipRussia-West RelationsYGLN