The risks of miscalculation or unwanted escalation connected with nuclear signalling failure are higher than they have been for decades and are rising. Rear Admiral John Gower urges that proactive effort is required to reverse this trend.
Dr Prokhor Tebin, Russia-based independent military and security expert, argues that a high probability of war between Russia and NATO is not the key challenge in Russia-NATO relations, but the low probability of meaningful dispute resolutions for Russia in engaging with NATO as a whole.
On 16-17 July 2018, the European Leadership Network together with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) co-hosted a seminar in Moscow as part of a joint project to identify specific, realistic and politically feasible steps that Russia, NATO and NATO members can take to move towards a more stable deterrence relationship.
An approach which aims to inject new thinking into Russia-NATO relations has been proposed by the ELN-supported Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, endorsed by former foreign and defence ministers, military leaders, diplomats and experts from the United Kingdom, Turkey, Russia, France, Ukraine, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. The proposal outlines “interim rules of the game” to allow for more transparency, predictability and risk reduction as well as for avoiding misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation.
The current Russia-NATO deterrence relationship is unstable, and dangerously so. The authors argue that the interplay between the deterrence postures operated by both Russia and NATO has not been sufficiently appreciated during their development – deterrence cannot be effective if your target does not understand your actions.
Adam Thomson discusses with veteran Russian journalist Mikhail Rostovsky the risks of hazardous military incidents between Russia and NATO.