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Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEUEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

Out of the shadow war? Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel

Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.

19 April 2024 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranGlobal SecurityDeterrenceIranMiddle EastNuclear WeaponsSecurityIran
Commentary

The Women Leader’s Podcast: The Middle East – Endless escalation

Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, speaks with Jodi Rudoren, Editor-in-Chief of the Forward and former New York Times Bureau Chief in Israel, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian of Cambridge University, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, and an expert on Iran and the Middle East. They discuss their own experiences of 7 October, their reactions to the war in Gaza, the implications for the media, geopolitics and the region, and the escalatory nature of the war following Iran’s increased role in the conflict over the past week.

19 April 2024 | Ilana Bet-El, Florence Ferrando and Roxane Farmanfarmaian
IranGlobal SecurityDefenceDiplomacyForeign policyIranMiddle EastPodcastsSecurityTerrorismIran
Commentary

Is the bridge to peace in Ukraine too far? Principles for a future peace plan

Former ambassadors to NATO, Ahmet Üzümcü and Fatih Ceylan, look ahead at what a potential peace deal in Ukraine could look like. They write that neither mutual accusations nor wishful thinking can be taken as a guide to chart the future of broader European security. Instead, the focus should be on exploring peace by putting together potential elements of an enduring and sustainable deal that would ultimately serve the interests of global security.

9 April 2024 | Ahmet Üzümcü and Mehmet Fatih Ceylan
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEUNATORussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineELN
Commentary

The potential terrorist use of large language models for chemical and biological terrorism

In our latest New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) commentary, Nicolò Miotto explores the potential existential risks stemming from the terrorist use of large language models (LLMs) and AI to manufacture chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. In the commentary he explores how LLMs and AI have enabled terrorist groups to enhance their capabilities so far, and what governments, the private sector, and NGOs need to do to mitigate future risks.

5 April 2024 | Nicolò Miotto
Global SecurityBiosecurityCSBMsDefenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceNEVERNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionSecurityTerrorismWMDsNEVER