The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.
As progress on disarmament is stagnating, nuclear risk reduction may hold the key to keeping the pillar alive. Maren Vieluf writes that nuclear weapons states must step up and work tirelessly on risk reduction measures to fulfil their NPT commitments.
In contrast to the disappointing outcomes of the non-proliferation and disarmament pillars of the 2022 Review Conference, a significant reinvigoration took place in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy pillar. Olamide Samuel writes that Pillar III offered progressive solutions by identifying how the treaty plays a role in mitigating some of the most pressing human and environmental security issues of our time and could help inform mechanisms for cooperation and success in future RevCons.
Dr Alexander Graef and Tim Thies look at what kind of arms control might be feasible in the context of evolving multipolar strategic rivalry by drawing on lessons from the past. They argue that the US and NATO allies should pursue limited yet necessary arms control measures that enhance their security.
On 16th August, the ELN launched a new project on the sidelines of the tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (RevCon). Funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it will invest in practical initiatives to pave the way for tomorrow’s arms control.
As diplomats debate the draft final document of the 10th NPT Review Conference, former disarmament ambassador and ELN senior network member, Carlo Trezza, argues that the severity of the wounds to international norms in Ukraine will “make it necessary – if consensus fails – to have recourse to a vote”.