On 5 May 2022, the European Leadership Network (ELN) convened the Contact Group on Russia-West relations via Zoom to discuss the current situation in Ukraine, as well as prospects for negotiations and the future of dialogue.
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The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed Europe’s inability to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, writes Adérito Vicente. He argues that the reasons include EU’s security idiosyncrasies, nuclear policy choices, divergent political interests, energy dependency and ineffective sanctions policy on Russia.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has already devastated Ukraine, and the situation could get even worse: Carlo Trezza argues that Russia could, for example, resort to chemical and/or nuclear weapons. To stand up to Russia’s aggression, there are many actions that both NATO and the UN can take to pressure Russia.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to fundamentally transform the international order. Mykola Kapitonenko argues that the Kremlin’s miscalculations could prove devastating not only for Russia but for international security as a whole, and he offers some suggestions as to how these global ramifications could be eased.
Putin underestimated Western unity and the scope of Western reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, write Üzümcü, Ceylan and İldem. However, they note that had such an invasion occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency, the Western reaction may have been quite different.
Lord Michael Ashcroft reports that a recent survey by Lord Ashcroft Polls in Russia shows that most Russians back the invasion of Ukraine and support certain Kremlin narratives — but they don’t claim all of it.