The current Russia-NATO deterrence relationship is unstable, and dangerously so. The authors argue that the interplay between the deterrence postures operated by both Russia and NATO has not been sufficiently appreciated during their development – deterrence cannot be effective if your target does not understand your actions.
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With Russia-West tension high, ELN Research Fellow Thomas Frear evaluates the progress made on mitigating the risk posed by hazardous military incidents and the implementation of ELN recommendations.
As the future of the Iran nuclear deal looks increasingly uncertain, ELN Policy Fellow Axel Hellman argues that European policymakers should leverage the value of the transatlantic partnership to influence US decision-making and demonstrate Europe’s commitment to the deal while laying the technical and political groundwork to challenge the snapback of US sanctions.
Continuing our series of guest commentaries on the ban treaty, Dr. Brad Roberts, Director of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, argues that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is essentially a protest vote which may end up harming much more than it helps.
Will President Trump torpedo the JCPOA or can European negotiators find a way through? Sir Simon Gass sets out a possible diplomatic sweet spot for the current US-Europe negotiations that might meet US concerns, yet keep Iran and the other parties to the deal on board.
This ELN report investigates how a Russia-NATO conflict could break out, unfold and be terminated. Based on this analysis, the report makes a set of recommendations to increase military stability and reduce the threat of inadvertent escalation.
Joseph Dobbs argues that policy-makers in Russia-West relations must be more aware of the negative impact stereotyping has on decision making. This paper examines three stereotypes in detail: Vladimir Putin the master tactician, the expansionist opponent and mutual weakness.
In early January 2018, the ELN took a senior non-governmental European delegation to Washington D.C. at a crucial moment in US decision-making over the JCPOA. It has produced a report of the visit which sets out the delegation’s main arguments and reflects on the results.
Dr. Stephen Blank, senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, argues that the prerequisite for pursuing any new arms control talks with Russia needs to be a fundamental change in Moscow’s foreign and security policy.